Revised survival analysis-based models in medical device innovation field

Scholars have shown that innovation and R&D affect both the business cycle and long-run economic growth (Basu et al.[1]; Comin and Gertler[2]). A statistical analysis of cross-country adoption of medical technology data, whose focus is on linear particle accelerators used as radiation treatment devices for patients with cancer, is presented. We exploit a unique database collecting information on some worldwide radiotherapy centres and concerning the exact year of medical devices adoption, in order to compare the late-innovation functions of different groups of countries and to detect the basic economic, social and geographical features impacting on the early technological innovation opportunity. From a statistical point of view, a contribution to the study of technological medical innovations can be provided through the survival analysis-based models. Survival analysis resorts to both non-parametric and semi-parametric tools, such as the survival function (e.g. Kaplan and Meier[5]), which gives the probability of surviving beyond a certain event time t, and the Cox regression model (Cox[3]; Cox and Oakes[4]), which fulfills predictive purposes by detecting both the individual baseline hazard and that associated with the presence of specific factors impacting on the event occurrence. Typically, the event of interest takes a negative connotation since denoting a failure (e.g., length of time before a patient die after a disease). The fact that the survival and the cumulative distribution of a random variable are intertwined proves useful to interpret survival analysis results from an economic standpoint. Our proposal is to extend the survival analysis approach to the context of the innovative medical device adoption and its eventual diffusion within the worldwide countries, here representing the statistical units of interest. In such a perspective, a new perception of the main survival analysis tools is then provided. The event of interest is recognized in the initial adoption of a specific technology, becoming an indicator of medical technology innovation. On the contrary, the survival function is interpreted as an indicator of the delay in the technological innovation adoption since measuring the probability of introducing a novel medical device beyond a specific event time t. Given these features, the survival function is named late-innovation function. In the same manner, also the Cox regression model is framed into an opposite scenario where the baseline hazard has no longer the meaning of risk but rather the meaning of early technological innovation opportunity, if no factors impacting on the initial technology adoption are taken into account. Analogously, the hazard function built on specific economic, social or geographical variables allows to detect their effects on the early technological innovation opportunity

Causality and predictability in distribution : the ethanol–food price relation revisited

This paper examines the relationship between biofuels, field crops and cattle prices in the U.S. from a new perspective. We focus on predictability in distribution by asking whether ethanol returns can be used to forecast different parts of field crops and cattle returns distribution, or vice versa. Density forecasts are constructed using Conditional Autoregressive Expectile models estimated with Asymmetric Least Squares. Forecast evaluation relies on quantile-weighed scoring rules, which identify regions of the distribution of interest to the analyst. Results show that both the centre and the left tail of the ethanol returns distribution can be predicted by using field crops returns. On the contrary, there is no evidence that ethanol can be used to forecast any region of the field crops or cattle returns distribution

Economic Impacts of El Niño Southern Oscillation: Evidence from the Colombian Coffee Market

We develop a structural econometric model to study the impacts of El Ni\u2dcno Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Colombian coffee production, exports and price. Our empirical specification is consistent with an economic model of the coffee market that, in the short-run, is characterized by a downward-sloping demand curve and by a vertical supply curve. This allows to study the effects of unpredictable innovations to ENSO on the Colombian coffee price, while controlling for shocks arising from both the supply and the demand-side of the market. We show that El Ni\u2dcno events (i.e. positive shocks to ENSO) might be beneficial for production and exports and tend to decrease the price of coffee. On the contrary, La Ni\u2dcna conditions (i.e. negative shocks to ENSO) depress coffee production and exports and increase price. However, the overall impact of ENSO shocks is small. In the short-run, ENSO shocks explain 2% of the fluctuations of coffee production and 0.2% of the variability of the price of coffee. In the long-run, these percentages rise to 8% and 6%, respectively. Both in the short-run and in the long-run, demand-side shocks are more relevant than supply-side shocks in explaining the dynamics of the price of coffee

Structural analysis with mixed frequencies : monetary policy, uncertainty and gross capital flows

In this paper we study how monetary policy, economic uncertainty and economic policy uncertainty impact on the dynamics of gross capital inflows in the US. Particular attention is paid to the mixed frequency-nature of the economic time series involved in the analysis. A MIDAS-SVAR model is presented and estimated over the period 1988-2013. While no relation is found when using standard quarterly data, exploiting the variability present in the series within the quarter shows that the effect of a monetary policy shock is greater the longer the time lag between the month of the shock and the end of the quarter. In general, the effects of economic and policy uncertainty on US capital inflows are negative and significant. Finally, the effect of the three shocks is different when distinguishing between financial and bank capital in flows from one side, and FDI from the other

Large-Scale Investment in Science: Economic Impact and Social Justice

Abstract Science is not a free lunch. Worldwide, R&D expenditures per year, from basic research to product development by firms, are about USD1.7 trillion (according to UNESCO estimates for 2017). There are perhaps 7.8 million professional researchers globally, around one researcher out of one thousand inhabitants of the planet. In the OECD area, which includes the most developed economies, government R&D spending is worth about USD 315 billion per year and the share of government of the total R&D expenditures is 28%. Hence, citizens support research in two ways: firstly, as consumers by paying a price for goods and services which in turn include in their production costs such expenditures; secondly, by paying taxes which support government R&D expenditures, mostly for basic science. In this short essay, I discuss two questions: What is the economic impact of basic research? What are the implications for social justice of the interplay between -on one side- government funded science and -on the other side- R&D supported by business? I will argue that the ultimate economic impact of large-scale investment in basic research is often (but not always) positive (i.e. benefits are greater than costs). There is, however, a potential concern for social justice arising from the private appropriation by business of rents arising from knowledge as a public good

HE-LHC: The High-Energy Large Hadron Collider – Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 4

In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics (EPPSU), the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched as a world-wide international collaboration hosted by CERN. The FCC study covered an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee), the corresponding 100 km tunnel infrastructure, as well as the physics opportunities of these two colliders, and a high-energy LHC, based on FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the third volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the hadron collider FCC-hh. It summarizes the FCC-hh physics discovery opportunities, presents the FCC-hh accelerator design, performance reach, and staged operation plan, discusses the underlying technologies, the civil engineering and technical infrastructure, and also sketches a possible implementation. Combining ingredients from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the high-luminosity LHC upgrade and adding novel technologies and approaches, the FCC-hh design aims at significantly extending the energy frontier to 100 TeV. Its unprecedented centre-of-mass collision energy will make the FCC-hh a unique instrument to explore physics beyond the Standard Model, offering great direct sensitivity to new physics and discoveries

FCC-ee: The Lepton Collider: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 2

In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics, the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched, as an international collaboration hosted by CERN. This study covers a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee) and an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), which could, successively, be installed in the same 100 km tunnel. The scientific capabilities of the integrated FCC programme would serve the worldwide community throughout the 21st century. The FCC study also investigates an LHC energy upgrade, using FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the second volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the electron-positron collider FCC-ee. After summarizing the physics discovery opportunities, it presents the accelerator design, performance reach, a staged operation scenario, the underlying technologies, civil engineering, technical infrastructure, and an implementation plan. FCC-ee can be built with today’s technology. Most of the FCC-ee infrastructure could be reused for FCC-hh. Combining concepts from past and present lepton colliders and adding a few novel elements, the FCC-ee design promises outstandingly high luminosity. This will make the FCC-ee a unique precision instrument to study the heaviest known particles (Z, W and H bosons and the top quark), offering great direct and indirect sensitivity to new physics

FCC Physics Opportunities: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 1

We review the physics opportunities of the Future Circular Collider, covering its e+e-, pp, ep and heavy ion programmes. We describe the measurement capabilities of each FCC component, addressing the study of electroweak, Higgs and strong interactions, the top quark and flavour, as well as phenomena beyond the Standard Model. We highlight the synergy and complementarity of the different colliders, which will contribute to a uniquely coherent and ambitious research programme, providing an unmatchable combination of precision and sensitivity to new physics

HE-LHC: The High-Energy Large Hadron Collider: Future Circular Collider Conceptual Design Report Volume 4

In response to the 2013 Update of the European Strategy for Particle Physics (EPPSU), the Future Circular Collider (FCC) study was launched as a world-wide international collaboration hosted by CERN. The FCC study covered an energy-frontier hadron collider (FCC-hh), a highest-luminosity high-energy lepton collider (FCC-ee), the corresponding 100 km tunnel infrastructure, as well as the physics opportunities of these two colliders, and a high-energy LHC, based on FCC-hh technology. This document constitutes the third volume of the FCC Conceptual Design Report, devoted to the hadron collider FCC-hh. It summarizes the FCC-hh physics discovery opportunities, presents the FCC-hh accelerator design, performance reach, and staged operation plan, discusses the underlying technologies, the civil engineering and technical infrastructure, and also sketches a possible implementation. Combining ingredients from the Large Hadron Collider (LHC), the high-luminosity LHC upgrade and adding novel technologies and approaches, the FCC-hh design aims at significantly extending the energy frontier to 100 TeV. Its unprecedented centre-of-mass collision energy will make the FCC-hh a unique instrument to explore physics beyond the Standard Model, offering great direct sensitivity to new physics and discoveries